It’s something that always gets complained about whether it’s too hot or too cold but why isn’t it just right?
Meteorologist across the world have the difficult task of informing the public of weather conditions on an hourly, daily, and weekly basis and they never get any credit for the job they do.
While some weather forecasts may be vague, not telling exactly what the weather will be, sometimes that is the exact forecast. Weather patterns change so fast and so unpredictably that it is impossible to have a truly correct weather forecast.
Last month Environment Canada Chief Climatologist Dave Phillips predicted that Canada will receive higher than normal temperatures this summer, but a lot of people are groaning at the high teens, low 20’s we are expecting this week.
Well first lets start with the fact that Summer doesn’t officially arrive until June 21st (next week) even though you might have had the cottage opened for a month and been swimming in Georgian Bay and the many lakes our area has to offer. A lot of people associate the May 2-4 weekend as the beginning of summer but it is only the UNOFFICIAL start to summer and any inconsistent weather from then until June 21st can not be ridiculed.
Secondly, when Mr. Phillips said temperature will be above normal this summer, he didn’t mean that every day we’ll have hotter than normal weather, it means that ON AVERAGE, the temperature for June, July and August will be higher than normal. And just because the temperature is warmer, doesn’t mean it will be a bright and sunny day!
So before you scoff at the weather forecasts from Environment Canada or the Weather Network, really listen to what they’re saying and try to enjoy the summer no matter what weather comes.
And while we’re on the topic of weather and forecasts, I wanted to explain to everyone what the percentages of rain really mean, for those that don’t know. I get a lot of negative feedback about rain percents and how I’m “wrong”. If the forecast says a 40% chance of rain, that doesn’t mean that there is a 40% chance of rain everywhere in the region. So even if it said 80% chance of showers, it might not rain where you are.
What a 40% chance of showers means is there is a chance of showers in 40% of the region. So take for instance a day like today; forecast says 40% chance of showers but Parry Sound might not get a drop where Humphrey and Nobel get showers all afternoon.
Hope everybody enjoyed my rant on weather. As always, let me know what you think!
I rant on weather as well. It is not sport - a bad forecast can skewer my business - golf. I now have convinced the Bracebridge Moose personalities to read the radar and satellite images to get a more informed local forecast. This is a good start.
ReplyDeleteAs for just repeating the EC or TWN forecast - while defensible it is irresponsible reporting when there are better local information sources.
Please remember - people actually believe what they hear on the radio - it becomes gospel for them. So you have a heavy responsibility to be as accurate as you can be. And this takes work.
I am happy to show you how this can happen. I have spoken with senior EC personnel - they have no need to change as they are too far removed from reality. Must be the air in Ottawa!!
Regards
Don MacKay
Muskoka Highlands Golf Links
Don, I know what you mean being in the golf business. I've worked at a golf course in my younger days and am a golfer myself. The weather is a deciding factor. Rest assured though, I don't take EC or TWN's forecasts verbatim. I like to look at the radar (from the Britt station for Parry Sound) and of course, looking out the window is always a good idea to put together an informed weather forecast.
ReplyDeleteI think you are right about the air in Ottawa...just not the same as here in Parry Sound-Muskoka! Thanks for your comment!